On What India needs..

Somewhere close to our 64th Independence day, I'd floated a tweet with the message that what  India really needs going forward is good education and good healthcare and that with these two taken care of most everything else would naturally follow.

There were a few sharp reactions to this tweet-o-mine, as might be naturally expected when you solve a centuries old problem in the space of 140 characters. The one reaction that I remember came from a dear old friend of mine Prabhu Narasimhan.His take on this was that education & healthcare are fine but what India really needs is a mature and clean Polity first and foremost.Now this chap, has and remains, in my short life, the most difficult person to win an argument against , and therefore I was pretty happy at his reaction because  on this I feel I have a winnable argument.

To state my case:

Is an honest  and mature Polity likely to solve all of India's problems ? That's too loaded a statement to merit a serious answer, because while clearly  there can only be an affirmative answer to this question, it automatically begs the question -how do we put in place a mature and honest Polity?

My bet is that  an honest and mature polity can never really come about as a result of  a lone crusade led by a JP or an Anna Hazare. It comes about gradually :-

• When Government after successive Government does serious work on cleaning up our rather corrupt system.
• When Generation after succeeding Generation feels that corruption is less prevalent around them than it was in the past, and as an extended corollary feels it is less acceptable than  it was in the past.
• When IAS official after succeeding IAS official realizes that lining his pockets doesn't help him as much as getting caught would damage his career, reputation and standing in society.
• When Minister after succeeding minister is forced to understand that corruption ,indolence and lack of initiative will result in two things , (a) him not getting elected ever again and (b) the wrath of the same constituency that had idolized him (or her, for that matter) and voted him into power.

All of this takes time, and more importantly, it takes an educated electorate to react consistently over a period of time to bunglers, cheats and lazy bureaucrats/politicians. It's only after these bunglers/cheats/indolents realize that the electorate won't reward them any further for shabby and slipshod work willl they be prodded to change themselves, And this is why I feel that without a redoubled effort to educate our masses on their civil responsibilities and duties; on the rights conferred  to them by our constitution; we can never (not in the distant future , not decades from now, not in a rosy scenario a few years down the line, but NEVER!) arrive at  a day when we have an honest and Mature Polity in place.

That's my education angle.

The healthcare angle is something I feel even more strongly about. India can never catapult itself into its glory days without addressing its severe lack of effort in the healthcare space. Having  stayed for more than three years in Sub-Saharan Africa , I feel entitled to my opinion that Indians deserve better healthcare than they have access to today. I feel this way because we have access to better doctors than sub-Saharan Africans have access to, and yet, our average healthcare facilities are at best at par with facilities there and in most cases - shame on us - worse than theirs. Oh yes, the best healthcare facilities we Indians have access to is definitely slightly better than the best facilities sub-Saharan Africans have access to , but that isn't much to be proud of !
Also, in a couple of years from now, given our tendency to gloat when we shouldn't, I wouldn't even bet on this last scenario being true anymore.

That's my healhtcare angle.

Let's just get these two things right, because frankly no one has even bothered to do anything on these issues till date.

On Democracy in Africa and the future of its Economy

For the longest time I've been meaning to pen my thoughts on the phenomenon of country after country in Africa celebrating their 50th Anniversary of Independence. It has been close to two years now that I've been residing in Cotonou, a port city in a country called Benin in West Africa. Benin celebrated it's 50th Anniversary of Independence from France on the 1st of August 2010. No less than fourteen countries ceased to be French colonies in 1960.The very same year,Belgian Congo became the independent republic of Zaire , and Somalia and Nigeria ceased to be part of the British Raj. With a billion plus inhabitants, massively well endowed with mineral resources and agricultural potential, and increasingly better governance, Africa is clearly the next big thing. May I humbly be the first to submit that Africa and its Billion be compared favourably in terms of its potential growth story with the other two billions that every commentator/wise ass with an opinion tirelessly fails to talk about viz. India and China. With abundant land, adequate water resources and more than adequate mineral resources (I'm reasonably confident that on a per capita basis Africa scores comfortably over India and China on each of these parameters) all Africa needs to be the next engine of world economic growth is access to good education and effective governance. On both these counts, I'm optimistic and believe that things are only improving.

Already in terms of GDP growth rate , African countries rank right up there. Have a look at the World GDP growth Rate comparison Map.Of the 54 recognized states that comprise Africa no less than 39 States figure in the top 100 fastest growing economies of the World ( Real GDP growth). Ethiopia one of the fastest growing GDPs in Africa clocks in at a nifty 5th , just ahead of India's 6th place and just behind China's 4th place. While South Africa remains the largest GDP in both real and PPP terms; countries like Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria aren't too far behind. All of these are vibrant and dynamic economies (South Africa included). Nigeria for example, with it's large population is an economy that drives or at the very least indirectly boosts the economy of several neighbouring countries like Benin, Niger, Cameroon,etc.



So the economic future of Africa, but for the rascally of its political classes, is well and truly something to watch out for.

The questions that go begging then, at this stage of the discussion, are quite clearly-What is the political scenario in these economies? How do they fare in terms of Governance? What is the score on poverty alleviance? How thus far, have governments here fared on social welfare metrics and indeed, on health care?

Answering these questions will surely deserve a more involved and better researched post than this one,but, for the moment , let me cap this article by coining an acronym rather akin to the famous BRICS but with fewer letters , it's one that's already familiar albeit in a different sphere but one that to my mind bears an important guiding light to the future of the world economy.

That acronym is CIA - or China, India and Africa. This is the new CIA of shifting  world economic power. If this century is storied as the Asian Century, then barring human annihilation I can safely wager my all without an ounce of doubt that the next century will be the African Century.

Maybe CARIBINS to include Brazil, Russia, Indonesia & South Africa ? Dunno..but this is going to surely have more follow up posts that's a promise!!